Tropical Storm Paeng is forecast to continue moving west northwestward through Sunday. On the forecast track the center of PAENG may make its initial landfall in the vicinity of Albay or Sorsogon this late evening or tomorrow early morning and traverse the Bicol Peninsula before emerging over the coastal waters of Quezon. Between tomorrow afternoon and evening, the center of PAENG may make another landfall over the east coast of Quezon. Considering the southward shift in the forecast track, the landfall scenario may change in the succeeding bulletins.
Paeng is forecast to further intensify while moving over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea and may reach severe tropical storm category within 12 hours.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
Location of Center (7:00 PM): The center of Tropical Storm “PAENG” was estimated based on all available data including those from Guiuan Doppler Weather Radar at 100 km East Northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar or 165 km East of Juban, Sorsogon (12.8°N, 125.5°E)
Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 105 km/h, and central pressure of 990 hPa
Present Movement: West northwestward at 25 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds: Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 480 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 2 Luzon Visayas Mindanao
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Marinduque, Quezon including Pollilo Islands, Laguna, Batangas, Cavite, Metro Manila, Rizal, Bulacan, the southern portion of Aurora (San Luis, Baler, Dingalan, Maria Aurora), the central and southern portions of Nueva Ecija (City of Gapan, San Leonardo, Santo Domingo, Rizal, San Isidro, Laur, Zaragoza, Llanera, Aliaga, Palayan City, Gabaldon, General Mamerto Natividad, Cabanatuan City, Quezon, San Antonio, General Tinio, Santa Rosa, Pe, Jaen, Licab, Bongabon, Cabiao, Talavera), the central and southern portions of Tarlac (La Paz, City of Tarlac, San Jose, Gerona, Mayantoc, Pura, Bamban, Capas, Santa Ignacia, Victoria, Concepcion), Pampanga, Bataan, the central and southern portions of Zambales (Masinloc, Palauig, Iba, Botolan, Cabangan, San Marcelino, Subic, Olongapo City, Castillejos, San Antonio, San Narciso, San Felipe), the northern and central portions of Oriental Mindoro (Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Baco, City of Calapan, Naujan, Victoria, Pola, Socorro, Pinamalayan, Gloria, Bansud, Bongabong, Roxas), the northern and central portions of Occidental Mindoro (Sablayan, Santa Cruz, Mamburao, Abra de Ilog, Paluan) including Lubang Islands, and Romblon
Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, and the northern portion of Leyte (San Isidro, Calubian, Tabango, Leyte, Capoocan, Carigara, Barugo, San Miguel, Babatngon, Tacloban City, Alangalang, Santa Fe, Palo, Tanauan, Dagami, Pastrana, Jaro, Kananga, Villaba, Tunga, Tabontabon, Tolosa)
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Warning lead time: 24 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Luzon
The central and southern portions of Isabela (San Agustin, Jones, City of Santiago, Cordon, Echague, Dinapigue, San Mariano, San Guillermo, Angadanan, City of Cauayan, Benito Soliven, Ramon, San Isidro, Alicia, San Mateo, Cabatuan, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Naguilian, Palanan, Aurora, Burgos, San Manuel, Gamu, Ilagan City, Divilacan, Roxas, Quirino, Mallig), Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Benguet, Ifugao, Mountain Province, the southern portion of Ilocos Sur (Sugpon, Cervantes, Alilem, Suyo, Tagudin, Santa Cruz, Sigay, Quirino, Gregorio del Pilar, Salcedo, Santa Lucia), La Union, the rest of Aurora, the rest of Nueva Ecija, the rest of Zambales, Pangasinan, the rest of Tarlac, the rest of Oriental Mindoro, the rest of Occidental Mindoro, Calamian Islands, and Cuyo Islands
Visayas
Southern Leyte, Cebu including Bantayan and Camotes Islands, Bohol, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Guimaras, Aklan, Antique, Capiz, Iloilo, Siquijor, and the rest of Leyte
Mindanao
Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, the northern portion of Surigao del Sur (Carrascal, Cantilan, Madrid, Carmen, Lanuza, Cortes, City of Tandag, Bayabas, Cagwait, San Miguel, Tago, Marihatag), Agusan del Norte, the northeastern portion of Agusan del Sur (Sibagat), Camiguin, and the eastern portion of Misamis Oriental (Gingoog City, Magsaysay, Medina, Talisayan, Balingoan, Kinoguitan)
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
• Tonight through tomorrow early morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains likely over Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Quezon, MIMAROPA, Caraga, Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, Northern Mindanao, and the rest of Visayas. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over over Metro Manila, Bulacan, Pampanga, Cagayan Valley, Aurora, the rest of CALABARZON, and the rest of Mindanao.
• Tomorrow early morning through Sunday morning: Heavy to torrential rains likely over Aurora, Metro Manila, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, CALABARZON, Mindoro Provinces, Romblon, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Western Visayas, and the rest of Central Luzon and Bicol Region. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over Zamboanga Peninsula and the rest of Luzon and Visayas.
• Heavy rain areas may be updated in the succeeding bulletins should there be significant shifts in the track and intensity forecast of PAENG.
Severe Winds
• Winds may reach gale-force strength during the passage of PAENG within any of the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted. Strong winds may be experienced within any of the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 1 is hoisted throughout the entire passage of PAENG.
• Per latest track and intensity forecast, the highest wind signal that will likely be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 3 in anticipation of storm-force conditions associated with PAENG.
• The surge of the Northeast Monsoon enhanced will also bring strong winds with gusts reaching gale-force strength over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan, and the northern portion of Apayao.
Coastal Inundation
There is minimal to moderate risk of storm surge of up to 2.0 m in height which may cause flooding in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of Bicol Region, Marinduque, Quezon including Pollilo Islands, the eastern portion of Aurora, the northern and eastern portions of Northern Samar, and the eastern portion of Eastern Samar. For more information refer to Storm Surge Watch #3 issued at 8:00 PM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and PAENG, a marine gale warning is in effect over the seaboards of Northern Luzon, the eastern and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #11 issued at 5:00 PM today.
